A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
