This Remarkable Scoring Streak Drives The Villans' Improbable Title Charge
Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.